THE INFLUENCE OF LANDFALL VARIATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE LOSSES IN THE UNITED STATES AS SIMULATED BY HAZUS by KEVIN

Sharp, Kevin Joseph (M.A., Geography) The Influence of Landfall Variation on Tropical Cyclone Losses in the United States as Simulated by HAZUS Thesis directed by Dr. William R. Travis Tropical cyclone losses in the United States have shown an increasing trend since the beginning of the 20 century. This is mainly due to increased exposure along America’s coast. The amount of coastal property at risk persistently increases due to inflation, wealth increase, and population growth. When researchers have normalized the loss record to remove the influence of exposure and vulnerability change, no trend can be discerned in the damage record. This has been used to refute the claim that tropical cyclones are becoming more potentially destructive, and to keep the locus of explanation firmly in socio-demographic trends. But physical variation, in storm size, intensity and location, still make a significant difference in the impact of any individual storm event. This fact occasionally induces calls for renewed efforts at hurricane modification and routinely evokes a sense of either relief or alarm at “close calls” that, except for a difference of a few miles in landfall location or a modest weakening of peak winds, separate hurricane disasters from catastrophes. This project examined the effect of landfall location on storm damage using the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) risk assessment model, HAZUS. Thirty-mile track shifts were prescribed for the top 10 most damaging storms in the normalized record since 1988. The alternate storms yielded drastically different damage estimates from the original storms, indicating large spatial